Wart Theory
Most warts are completely harmless. They are aesthetically annoying, and they may last for years. But they are treated easily and then they go away.
But if you get a wart on the wrong part of your foot, this may become a much larger problem than you expected.
First it does not bother you. You barely notice it. It does not hurt. Then it multiplies to be two warts. This still does not bother you. Two benign mushrooms on your foot is not much worse than one. You read online that these go away on their own, and so you wait. You don’t want to spend your time in the doctor’s waiting room. You might get sick from something far more serious. Then it multiplies again, and this time, it is right under your big toe where the pressure accumulates like the bottom of a whirlpool every time you step. You step on it and it goes in deeper and deeper into your skin.
Now you actually go to the doctor. It’s been a year and it has not gotten better on its own. The internet betrayed you! The doctor puts some acid on you and tells you to come back in two weeks. You do that. Still there. Four weeks later, it is still there.
The mushroom has now climbed deep inside you, messing with you. Every time you take a step you can feel it. It is climbing up your shin. You twist your leg to distribute the weight differently in order to avoid putting pressure on it. Now your knees are getting fucked up.
You switch to wearing padded shoes and your fashion sense accordingly. All because of a wart. You start building habits around it. Every second of every day you think about this little prick on your foot you just can’t get rid of. When you eat your favorite food. In the swimming pool. During sex. Your life now revolves around this wart that you did not pay attention to even two years ago.
I consider Wart Theory in all aspects of analysis. What tiny thing, if you neglect it or allow it to grow, will cause a much larger problem a year down the road? What inconvenience do I need to destroy now, before it grows and destroys me?
You see Wart Theory at play in policy all the time. A bill that was passed 40 years ago unnecessarily to do something is now a pain for everybody building a house. A regulation put in place 60 years ago is now causing night terrors for businesspeople.
It is vital to think about when creating new laws. What wart are you spreading into the world?